According to a Billboard article published Wednesday, Neilsen Soundscan has reported an 11% decline in album sales during the first half of 2008, compared to the same period in 2007. Consumers purchased 204.6 million albums between January and June, over 25 million less than a year ago, but luckily not as sharp a decline as the 15.1% that occurred in the first half of 2007 as compared to 2006. Nielsen Soundscan told Billboard that the "drop is fueled largely by the 16.3% decrease in CD sales" despite digital album sales rising 34.4& to account for 15.4% of sales (31.6 million units).
Digital growth is still a productive and lucrative spot for the music industry, with single track downloads growing 30% to 532.7 million units in the first half of the year over first half sales in 2007 of 417.3 million units. Universal Music Group is still the most dominating music company, despite dropping .3% to 31.2% in sales. Sony BMG Music Entertainment and EMI Group also fell, with Sony BMG dropping .5% to 24.8% and EMI dropping 1% to 9.4%. The only major music company to gain any ground was Warner Music Group Corp. (NYSE: WMG), rising .8% to 20.8%. Independent music companies also rose in the first six months of 2008, capturing 13.9% of the market -- up 1%.
Declines in album sales are a constant trend in the music industry, so an 11% drop is no real surprise but the lowered decline over one year ago should cause some relaxation. The only problem with the drop in decline is that album sales are still falling off. Even though Nielsen Soundscan and Billboard both commented on the hope provided by single track downloads, the industry still looks to album sales to justify the recording and marketing of music. If that trend would change, single track downloads would make an obvious market to rely on. Instead, reports about declining album sales will still continue while single track downloads continue to grow.
San Francisco Fed Reserve Bank President Yellen to speak about the U.S. economic outlook at the University of California/San Diego with a Q&A session.
Aracruz Cellulose (NYSE: ARA) to report Q2 earnings; conference call at 11:00am.
Tuesday, July 8
Richmond Fed Reserve Bank President Lacker to speak about U.S. economic outlook to the National Economists Club in Washington with a Q&A session expected.
With the 4th of July approaching, it's always a good time to get a bit of perspective and take a look at what may happen in the second half of the year. As with predictions they generally tend to never come true, but here are 3 market predictions for the 2nd half of the year.
1- Crude oil will trade down under $100/barrel. As global growth continues to slow, especially in overheated emerging markets, some of the the speculative froth will leave the market and the price will start heading down to a point more in line with fundamentals.
2- The US Dollar will rally against the Euro, and reach a level of 1.42 by the end of December, down from the 1.58 current levels. With European growth expected to potentially contract by more than 1% in the coming quarters, and the US staying out of recession, the market will re-focus on growth differentials in the for-ex markets, providing some much needed strength for the greenback.
The lubricant with thousands of uses, WD-40 is found in just about every toolbox in the nation. WD-40 Company (NASDAQ: WDFC) released 3Q 2008 results that show solid sales figure increases in all divisions around the globe. Net sales for the quarter increased 5.8% to $82 million. Net income was up by the same amount to $8 million. EPS increased 10% to $0.49. The story is much the same for YTD figures. WD-40 posted these numbers despite a tremendous run-up in the prices of raw materials. Senior management is being conservative and has, therefore, reduced FY2008 guidance. The company now expects net sales to increase 4-8% to $320-$332 million. Net income will be in the $30 to $31 million range and EPS in the $1.78-$1.85 range.
The company is rolling out its Smart Straw initiative globally. No more looking for the stupid little red straw that always got separated from the spray can. Now all aerosol cans of WD-40 have a built-in applicator. What a relief.
WD-40 also owns 3-in1 oil, Lava soap, X-14 and Carpet Fresh. None of these products are environmentally friendly by any stretch of the imagination. To counteract the perception that its products are not environmentally sensitive, WD-40 has launched a new product line, Spot Shot, comprised of an environmentally safe carpet stain remover and pet odor remover.
The stock is trading at just over $27, near its 52-week low of $26.50, and pays $0.25 in quarterly dividend.
Bad news in the market means good news for Constellation Brands Inc. (NYSE: STZ) which manufactures and markets spirits, wines and beers under a variety of labels. Brands include Robert Mondavi wines, Corona beer and Black Velvet whiskey. When the economy is good, folks drink to celebrate. When the economy starts to tank, people drink to commiserate. Constellation benefits either way. The company just released 1Q 2009 results. Profits jumped 50%! Diluted (no pun intended) EPS was $0.20, up from $0.13 in 1Q 2008. Consoldiated net sales increased 3%, with wine sales up 15% and spirit sales, led by vodka, up 9%. Constellation offloaded several lower profit margin lines including Almaden and Inglenook wines, and added higher product margin line wines Clos du Bois and Wild Horse.
Investors, whether drinkers or tea-totalers, like the numbers. The stock is up over 5% in the last two days, closing on July 2nd at $21.22
Constellation Brands (NYSE: STZ) produces and markets more than 250 brands of wine, spirits and beer, in about 150 countries. The Wines division, the largest maker of wine by volume in the world, is responsible for such brands as Robert Mondavi, Inniskillin, Simi, Arbor Mist and Blackthorn (cider). The Spirits division distills such brands as Black Velvet, Chi-Chi's, Fleischmann's, Canadian LTD and Mr. Boston. The Imports division has the right to import, market, and sell Corona Extra, Corona Light, Tsingtao, Modelo Especial, Pacifico and St. Pauli Girl. The firm distributes its products through wholesalers, government beverage control agencies and various retailers. Diageo (NYSE: DEO) and Fortune Brands (NYSE: FO) are major competitors.
The company pleased investors earlier in the week, when it reported fiscal Q1 EPS of 34 cents and revenues of $931.8 million. Analysts had been looking for 31 cents and $906.1 million. The highlight of the quarter was a 24% year over year rise in branded wine net sales. Management also guided FY09 EPS to $1.68-$1.76, versus consensus of $1.70.
Robbins & Myers (NYSE: RBN) provides equipment used for the industrial processing and management of fluids. Its Fluid Management segment offers hydraulic drilling equipment, slurry grinders and wellhead systems used by oil and gas, specialty chemical and wastewater treatment firms. The Process Solutions unit makes glass-lined reactors, storage vessels and mixing/agitation devices for the pharmaceutical and fine chemical markets. The Romaco segment provides equipment for the dosing, filling and sealing of vials, capsules, tubes and bottles.
Investors were pleased earlier in the week, when the firm reported fiscal Q3 EPS of 62 cents and revenues of $200.9 million. The Street had been looking for 58 cents and $190.2 million. Management also guided Q4 EPS to 62-67 cents (60 cent consensus) and FY08 EPS to $2.10-$2.15 ($2.05 consensus).
Nvidia (NASDAQ: NVDA), the big graphics chip maker, warned on profits. It was an inauspicious beginning to the earnings season for tech stocks. Many of the world's PCs use Nvidia chips. One of the reasons the company gave for its trouble is slowing demand combined with lower prices. The news was considered so bad that NVDA shares fell over 20% after hours.
According toMarketWatch,the company "expects its second-quarter revenue and gross margin to be lower than its previously announced forecast. The company now expects revenue from $875 million to $950 million." The consensus among analysts was that the company would have revenue of $1.1 billion.
Because the firm's products are so closely associated with PC sales, shares in other chip companies like Intel (NASDAQ: INTC) and computer makers like Dell (NASDAQ: DELL) are almost certain to be viewed as candidates for earnings downgrades of their own.
Nvidia's forecast could be the start of a very hard quarter for tech companies. And they may have been Wall Street's last significant hope.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Stock futures were mixed early Thursday morning, the last and shortened day of trading this week -- markets will close at 1 p.m. EDT. Oil, again, has reached new highs as investors awaited the ECB decision on interest rate. Wall Street is also anxious about the upcoming jobs report, especially after Wednesday the ADP employment figures were worse than expected. Today's session will likely be choppy.
Despite starting the day on a positive note Wednesday, U.S. stocks ended sharply lower after the ADP employment figures damped mood on the Street. Also, crude oil prices rose sharply and an analyst warned that General Motors (NYSE: GM) may have to consider bankruptcy at some point; GM stock closed below $10 a share. The Dow industrials tumbled 166 points, or 1.46%, entering bear territory -- down over 20%, the Nasdaq Composite lost 53 points, or 2.32%, and the S&P 500, fell 23 points, or 1.82% - the only major index still not in bear territory.
Soon, at 7:45 a.m. EDT, the European Central Bank will announce its decision on interest rates. The ECB is widely expected to increase rates, which in turn could further weaken the dollar, driving oil prices higher.
Then, at 8:30 a.m., the Labor Department will release the June payroll figures. Economists expect the unemployment rate to fall to 5.4% from 5.5% last month, but job losses are expected to rise to 60,000 positions, up from 49,000 in May, according to Briefing.com.
At 10:00 a.m., the June ISM services index will be released, and another decline is expected.
AeroVironment (NASDAQ: AVAV) is engaged in the design, development and production of unmanned aircraft systems and electric energy technologies for various industries and governmental agencies. The company's small aircraft are used by U.S. Department of Defense customers to deliver real-time reconnaissance, surveillance, and target acquisition to tactical operating units. Its electrical products include recharge systems for industrial vehicle batteries and power processing test equipment. Ford Motor (NYSE: F) and Delta Air Lines (NYSE: DAL) are on the company's commercial customer list. Lockheed Martin (NYSE: LMT) is a major competitor.
The firm pleased investors last week, when it reported fiscal Q4 EPS of 30 cents and revenues of $64.3 million. Analysts had been expecting 27 cents and $59.3 billion. In discussing the successful quarter, the CEO pointed to strength in demand for unmanned aircraft and related support services. Management also guided FY09 revenues to about $258.9-$269.7 million, versus Street consensus of $259.44 million. Funded backlog at the end of Q4 was up 35% from the same point last year.
Discount-store operator Family Dollar Stores Inc. (NYSE: FDO) reported that its fiscal third-quarter profit rose as more consumers sought bargains on food and other items. And Apollo Group Inc. (NASDAQ: APOL) said Tuesday its fiscal third-quarter profit rose as increased advertising of its educational programs attracted new students.
Family Dollar earnings for the quarter ended May 31 rose 7% from the year-ago period to $64.7 million, or 46 cents per share. Total revenue rose 2.9% to $1.7 billion, with same-store sales rising only 0.1%.
Analysts polled by Thomson Financial had expected a profit of 40 cents per share on revenue of $1.7 billion.
The company said a rise in the average amount customers spent per transaction helped offset lower store traffic, and that cost and inventory controls also benefited results.
Family Dollar raised its fiscal fourth-quarter guidance by a penny.
Shares rose $2.81 to $23.10 in morning trading. The share price is up 16.9% year to date.
June 30 was the day when Thornburg Mortgage Inc. (NYSE: TMA) had hoped to complete at least 90% of its preferred stock repurchase as part of a last ditch effort to save the company from bankruptcy and return it to viability. CEO Larry Goldstone continues to state that bankruptcy is not an option.
Well, when the stock has lost 99% of its value, the company posted a $3 billion quarterly loss, no one will buy what you have to sell, shareholders who have lost just about everything don't want to play anymore, and Moody's handed the company a C (for crap) rating.
Bankruptcy looks like a realistic scenario. And just to keep things interesting, the SEC is investigating the company's 2007 financial results, the timing of margin calls, as well as accounting practices for the company's mortgage-backed securities.
Thornburg's problems have nothing to do with the sub-prime mortgage debacle, at least not directly. Thornburg specializes in jumbo mortgages to those with impeccable credit. Its default rate is the envy of the mortgage industry. So the problem is not creditworthiness, but liquidity. Investors simply are not interested in purchasing mortgage-backed securities of whatever quality in the secondary market.
Thornburg's latest last ditch effort calls for the company to purchase 90% of its preferred stock in exchange for $5 and 3.5 shares of common stock for each share of preferred stock. Shareholders recently gave the company permission to increase the number of shares outstanding from 500 million to four billion in order to make the tender offer possible. The deadline for tendering preferred shares has been extended to September 30. The stock is currently trading at $0.22 per share, way down from its 52 week high of $27.82.
Even a contrarian speculator will have to work very hard to find value in this one.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are trading 4.2% higher in premarket action after the bank, seeking to calm investors, said it expects a profit in its second quarter.
While AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) unveiled its pricing strategy for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s 3G iPhone to go on sale July 11 with a $199 and $299 (with contract) price points as expected, Canadians are outraged over Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI)'s 3G iPhone rates and have created an online petition that collected over 19,000 signatures already.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) rose in Europe and is rising over 2.7% in premarket trading after winning a court case against Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) and the Sandoz unit of Novartis (NYSE: NVS) over patents on its Seroquel schizophrenia drug.
U.S. stock futures were higher Wednesday morning, as Wall Street could try to having yet another positive session. While Starbucks news of store closing and reports Microsoft may still be interested in Yahoo helped lift sentiment, UnitedHealth already issued a warning this morning. Employment data is also on tap before the market opens.
U.S. stocks finally ended higher on Tuesday. Surprisingly, it was car sales that helped the mood on the Street as as June sales came in not as bad as expected. The Dow industrials ended 32 points higher, or 0.28%, the S&P 500 added 4 points, or 0.38%, and the Nasdaq Composite added 11 points, or 0.52%.
Today, investors will have the ADP June private sector employment figures to chew on ahead of the government's report tomorrow. The employment report is expected to be released at 8:15 a.m. EDT. Then, at 10 a.m., May factory orders are due out.
Also on the docket today is weekly crude inventories, usually released at 10:30 a.m. EDT. While oil came off highs Tuesday due to a slightly stronger dollar, it again rose above $141 a barrel Wednesday, due to persistent supply concerns that has analysts warning of higher prices yet. An IEA report saying supplies will remain tight and demand will likely grow despite higher prices helped push prices higher.
H&R Block (NYSE: HRB), whose colleagues include Intuit (NASDAQ: INTU) and Jackson Hewitt (NYSE: JTX), reported Q4 and full-year earnings on Monday. The numbers looked pretty good to me. For Q4, revenues increased 11% to $2.6 billion and earnings per diluted share from continuing operations increased 17% to $2.11. According to this article, analysts' expectations were beat by $0.08. For the full year, the top line expanded by 10%, coming in at $4.4 billion. Earnings per diluted share from continuing operations jumped 21% to $1.39.
The tax specialist said it worked with 23.5 million clients, the most ever in its corporate history. That's a nice indication of health for the company, I suppose, but here's a better one. The board decided to juice the dividend. The annual payment will now be $0.60 per share, translating to a 5% increase. Okay, 5% isn't too exciting, I'll grant you, but H&R Block has now increased its payments to shareholders every year for over a decade.
But, as the company stated in its release, although it intends on repurchasing shares over the next few years, it will remain "particularly disciplined" about the subject in the next fiscal year. Essentially, that means shareholders should not expect a lot of share repurchases for a while. H&R Block is reacting to the fact that it is still rebooting itself after being victimized by the subprime mortgage crisis. I'd rather hear a more aggressive stance in terms of buyback plans, but I'd say there is prudent motive in such posture given the company's state.
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Bad news in the market means good news for 
Stock futures were mixed early Thursday morning, the last and shortened day of trading this week -- markets will close at 1 p.m. EDT. Oil, again, has reached new highs as investors awaited the ECB decision on interest rate. Wall Street is also anxious about the upcoming jobs report, especially after Wednesday the ADP employment figures were worse than expected. Today's session will likely be choppy.
Discount-store operator 
June 30 was the day when 
Wal-Mart's launch of $20 slimming jeans will be a huge success
Why I spent some of my stimulus check on GE
Why the dollar will keep falling
