After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).
I said that all five have shrewd, conservative management teams and have been in the right place, at the right time -- and prepared. The standard for comparison will be the Standard & Poors 500 Index which closed on June 30, 2008 at 1,280.00. Although my original story was published yesterday, I will be using the second quarter end point for my five stocks as well.
Deutsche Bank (NYSE: DB) shares are trading 4.2% higher in premarket action after the bank, seeking to calm investors, said it expects a profit in its second quarter.
While AT&T Inc. (NYSE: T) unveiled its pricing strategy for Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s 3G iPhone to go on sale July 11 with a $199 and $299 (with contract) price points as expected, Canadians are outraged over Rogers Communications Inc. (NYSE: RCI)'s 3G iPhone rates and have created an online petition that collected over 19,000 signatures already.
AstraZeneca (NYSE: AZN) rose in Europe and is rising over 2.7% in premarket trading after winning a court case against Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) and the Sandoz unit of Novartis (NYSE: NVS) over patents on its Seroquel schizophrenia drug.
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees.
Many of them were the stocks we might have looked to in the past for stability, so you can be sure I put forward my five candidates with a little trepidation, but forward I go anyway. First a little review is in order.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C) dropped from around $53 per share last year to around $30 in January and we can buy it today for around $17. Even at that price Goldman Sachs (NYSE: GS) has downgraded it to a sell and thinks there is more bad news to come. Citigroup was the largest bank in the world. Not any more.
General Motors (NYSE: GM) was the largest car maker in the world. That was before the stock tumbled from $43 to its current $11 range. A crushing blow to long time investors hoping that someone in the company could stop the ship from sinking.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Symantec, Cardinal Financial and BP Plc were today's noteworthy upgrades:
ThinkPanmure upgraded Symantec (NASDAQ:SYMC) to Buy from Accumulate based on improved execution, stable growth in core business, and ramping competitive position in some high-growth businesses.
Baird upgraded Cardinal Financial (NASDAQ:CFNL) to Outperform from Neutral based on valuation, the company's favorable credit risk profile in Northern Virginia, and its excess capital position.
Societe Generale raised BP Plc (NYSE: BP) to Hold from Sell as it believes the bad news is priced into shares and earnings could be better than expected.
OTHER UPGRADES:
Alcatel-Lucent (NYSE:ALU) was upgraded at Merrill Lynch to Neutral from Underperform.
Jefferies lifted Hunsman (NYSE: HUN) to Hold from Underperform.
"Analysts estimate the worldwide market for generics will increase from $75 billion to $125 billion by 2012," says Michael Shulman.
In his ChangeWave Biotech Investor he states, "The key question for us is: Who is going to make the most money from these expirations? And the 800-pound gorilla in this market is our long-time holding, Teva Pharmaceuticals (NASDAQ: TEVA).
"Teva is the largest and best generics company in the world with $9.4 billion in sales in 2007 and the gap between it and its competitors is growing. Teva has 331 products on the market, 65% more than its closest competitor.
"More importantly, based on its business model of a mix of proprietary and generic drugs, the company's operating margins are 10 points higher than competitors and that gap is widening. In fact, in the United States, the number of prescriptions filled with Teva generics is 50% more than its closest competitor.
"Be clear on this point: When it comes to generics, size does matter. The more a company sells, the more profit and cash it has available to do research and acquire more generics to add to its product list -- and the beat goes on.
Today was indicative of another mixed day for equities, and other markets were mixed as well. We saw a sharp rise in bond yields due to a more hawkish fear from Wall Street about the FOMC rather than the wider than expected trade deficit reported this month. Oils closed down again on increased production today, although we still sit north of $130/barrel. Here are the unofficial closes of major US index levels:
There were also many biotech stocks today (ACHN, CRXL, MNKD, SQNM, CYTR, CYTX, INGN, ATHX, MITI, GTOP) which saw mystery moves to the downside on either not big news or as a follow-on trading move after news from the last few days.
American Superconductor Corp. (NASDAQ: AMSC) saw a sharp rise and shares were up almost 20% to $43.25 in the final minutes of trading today. The company secured a follow-on order today from China worth more than two-year's worth of revenues for the company.
After hitting a one-year low of $38.66 last June, the stock hit a one-year high of $50.00 in February. This morning, TEVA opened at $43.58. So far today the stock has hit a low of $43.31 and a high of $44.12. As of 12:25, TEVA is trading at $43.59, down $1.17 (-2.6%). The chart for TEVA looks bearish but improving slightly, while S&P gives the stock its highest 5 STARS (out of 5) strong buy rating.
For a bearish hedged play on this stock, I would consider a September bear-call credit spread above the $50 range. A bear-call credit spread is an options position that combines the purchase and sale of call options to hedge risk in case the stock doesn't do what you think but still leverage nice returns. For this particular trade, we will make a 5.3% return in three and a half months as long as TEVA is below $50 at September expiration. Teva would have to rise by more than 14% before we would start to lose money. Learn more about this type of trade here.
Investors who are looking to gain exposure to one of the top performing global markets, may be interested in a new ETF that starts trading today. The Tel-Aviv 25 index is the main Israeli large-cap stock index and has produced triple digit returns over the last four years. While Israel is known to have more publicly traded companies in the U.S. than any other country in the world, the make-up of the local TA 25, is mostly a domestic play on banks, phone companies, supermarket chains and other domestic consumption plays. The Israeli companies that trade in the U.S. are mostly hi-tech firms.
A few months ago Ishares launched an ETF on locally traded Israeli stocks. The Ishares MSCI Israel Index (NYSE: EIS) has done quite well, but there is an inherent flaw in the make-up of the ETF. The index gives Israeli generic drug giant, Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) a colossal 25% weighting, basically leaving investors with a, "Where Teva goes, so goes the ETF" type of investment.
Starting today, the EIS will be joined by another ETF. Northern Trust (NASDAQ: NTRS) is launching the TAV, an ETF based on the TA 25. The ETF will try to follow the TA 25, and rarely will have an individual stock weighted above 10%.
For investors looking for some international exposure, take a look at Israel and research the new ETFs on the market. It's a good way to gain entrance and exposure to a flourishing market.
Investment Associates, LLC. and Senior Editor of IsraelNewsletter.com. DISCLOSURE: Writer's fund has no position in any stock mentioned, as of 5/27/08
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Georgia Gulf, Sohu.com and I-flow were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Citigroup downgraded Georgia Gulf (NYSE: GGC) to Sell from Hold to reflect the deteriorating fundamentals in North American housing, and their belief that the company is increasingly likely to break its debt covenant ratio.
Deutsche Bank downgraded shares of Sohu.com (NASDAQ: SOHU) to Hold from Buy on valuation and expects 2009 growth to be modest.
Piper cut I-Flow (NASDAQ: IFLO) to Sell from Neutral following the weak Q1 report and guidance.
OTHER DOWNGRADES:
Morgan Stanley downgraded Coca-Cola Femsa (NYSE: KOF) to Equal Weight from Overweight.
Goldman removed Teva Pharma (NASDAQ: TEVA) from its Conviction Buy List.
Aqua America (NYSE: WTR) was cut to Market Perform from Outperform at Wachovia.
JP Morgan lowered PetroChina (NYSE: PTR) to Underweight from Neutral.
D. R. Horton (NYSE: DHI) shares are down over 6% in premarket trading after the homebuilder has swung to a loss for its fiscal second quarter of $1.31 billion, or $4.14 per share. With the continued housing slump, the company took hefty charges to write down the value of its inventory. Revenue plunged to $1.62 billion from $2.62 billion a year ago.
Fannie Mae (NYSE: FNM) shares are slumping over 9% this morning after the mortgage lender said it lost $2.2 billion or $2.57 a share in the first quarter due to mounting home-loan delinquencies as the housing slump continued. The results were below, far below that of estimates.
Vodafone Group (NYSE: VOD) said Tuesday that it's signed an agreement with Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL) to sell the iPhone in ten of its markets including Australia, the Czech Republic, Italy and India.
Citigroup Inc. (NYSE: C)'s Vikram Pandit was brought in to make changes at the struggling bank, and that's exactly what he's doing (or at least trying). After much management changes the past weeks, today the financial services company unveiled a restructuring plan that includes setting up an independent credit-card unit and overhauling consumer banking along geographical, rather than product, lines.
Schering-Plough (NYSE: SGP) stock is dropping nearly 17% and Merck (NYSE: MRK) is dropping over 10% in premarket trading after a study published in the New England Journal of Medicine concluded that doctors should cut their use of cholesterol drugs Vytorin -- a combination of Merck's Zocor and SGP's Zetia -- and Zetia.
Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA) is buying Bentley Pharmaceuticals (NYSE: BNT) for $360 million in cash, or $15.02 a share, in a move to expand operations in Spain. Bentley's drug delivery business will be spun off to shareholders prior to the Teva transaction. The purchase price represents a 9% premium to Bentley's closing stock price Friday of $13.74.
At their investor day, Teva Pharmaceutical Industries Ltd. (ADR) (NASDAQ: TEVA), the world's largest generic drug maker, said that they expect to double revenues over the next 4 years. Teva predicts that they will grow faster than the generic market. While that is interesting in its own right, their view on the generic market in general is astounding.
"By 2012, Teva expects to have 30% of the U.S. market for generic prescriptions, up from about 20% now. Over 75% of U.S. prescriptions will be filled by a generic by 2012," the company said.
Wow! Three out of every four prescriptions will be filled by a generic in just four years from now. That's huge. If that is indeed the case Big-pharma needs to look out. Where are their profits going to come from? Even the big Bio-tech players are squirming over the possibility of bio-generics.
General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) posted a fourth-quarter loss of $722 million, or $1.28 a share , after a year-earlier profit on rising costs in North America. Sales fell to $47 billion. For 2007, it posted a record net loss of $38.73 billion, or a loss of $68.45 per share. GM, eager to lower wages is offering a new round of buyouts to all 74,000 of its U.S. hourly workers who are represented by the United Auto Workers. GM shares are down 3.3% in premarket trading.
Teva Pharmaceutical (NASDAQ: TEVA), reported fourth-quarter earnings rose 24% to $570 million, or 69 cents a share, beating estimates of 66 cents per share. Sales grew 13% to $2.58 billion from $2.28 billion. Still, TEVA shares are down nearly 1.7% in premarket trading.
Time Warner (NYSE: TWX) was upgraded at UBS from Neutral to Buy. Shares are up over 1.1% in premarket trading.
MOST NOTEWORTHY: Sears Holding, Reuters Group and Shire Plc were today's noteworthy downgrades:
Goldman downgraded shares of Sears Holding (NASDAQ: SHLD) to Sell from Neutral as they expect continued share loss and profit pressures in this macro environment.
ABN Amro lowered its rating on Reuters Group (NASDAQ: RTRSY) to Sell from Hold as they believe the credit crisis will impact the company's banking profitability.
Shire Plc (NASDAQ: SHPGY) was downgraded to Neutral from Buy at Merrill. The firm sees limited upside to 2008 earnings.
After seeing the interest in yesterday's Serious Money: Five stable stocks for troubled times, I decided to track the stocks on a quarterly basis to see how they hold up over time (otherwise, what would be the purpose of discussing them in the first place?).
Six months of 2008 are now behind us and the stock market has not been a friendly place to most investors. Stability that was once found in household names that were industry giants is gone, and they have now been brought to their knees. .gif){kind=logo}
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