I was actually in Detroit on Monday. I'm not going to write about the urban decay and the deterioration of the city. Many have researched and documented this far better than I ever could. But even in my short three-hour visit, the evidence was all too clear. Personally, I think Detroit has more character than many other richer and far more maintained and manicured cities. Even abandoned and in shambles, many of the buildings are architectural gems. Perhaps because one can still see the glorious past through the ruins, that it is so affecting. Or, as the website names them, they are The Fabulous Ruins of Detroit.
This week has been very busy for automakers, starting with June car and truck sales reported on Tuesday. General Motors Corporation (NYSE: GM) reported an 18.2% drop in sales, which was actually better than expected, and Ford Motor Company (NYSE: F) a drop of 27.9%. Meanwhile, Japan's Toyota Motor Corporation (NYSE: TM) posted a 21.4% sales decline. GM shares actually got a boost from the sales figures, but that didn't last long.
It probably should come as no surprise, but June was a tough month for automakers, and all signs are pointing to more troubles out on the horizon.
All but one major automaker saw their sales drop last month, with Honda Motor (NYSE: HMC) being the sole exception. For the month, Honda actually had a 1% year-over-year sales growth, which given the current market place was an exceptional feat.
So just how bad was June for the automakers? Pretty bad. During the month, combined auto sales fell to 1.19 million vehicles sold, a 266,000 decline from the same period last year. This just continues the trend that we have been seeing all year, amounting to roughly a 10% sales decline during the first half of the year.
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This post is part of my series featuring established companies and the smaller, more aggressive or innovative rivals that may eventually succeed them.
This may be perhaps the most surprising article in this series as few investors realize how huge Toyota Motors (NYSE: TM) is, especially when compared to Ford Motors (NYSE: F). Toyota sports a stock market valuation of $168 billion, 12 times the size of Ford's market cap of $13 billion. In fact, an even more surprising statistic: Toyota is 8 times larger than Ford and General Motors (NYSE: GM) combined!
Toyota has recently surpassed GM in annual unit sales of cars and trucks. Toyota sold over 9.3 million units in 2007 and has 16% market share in the United States. In spite of the difficult environment that all auto makers are facing with the economic slowdown, Toyota is poised for future growth with its cutting-edge line-up of hybrid autos and trucks. But, not too far behind Toyota is Ford. The company has perhaps a much brighter future than its main U.S. competitor GM. Ford has taken the necessary steps these past 21 months under the leadership of CEO Alan Mullaly. He was the president and CEO of Boeing's (NYSE: BA) commercial plane division.
Mullaly brings experience to Ford, but more importantly, he has a fresh approach and ideas from the aerospace industry. He has quickly retooled Ford by closing unproductive plants and expanding manufacturing in expense-friendly nations such as Mexico. Mullaly embraced hybrid technology and has positioned Ford as the American hybrid alternative to Toyota.
Since Apple Inc (NASDAQ: AAPL) is no longer insisting on revenue sharing from mobile operators selling its iPhone, China Mobile Ltd (NYSE: CHL) said this cleared the biggest hurdle in bringing the iPhone to mainland China. They just have to resolve some practical issues now.
KB Home (NYSE: KBH) shares climbed over 5.8% in after-hours trading Thursday. The builder is to report results this morning, a quarterly loss is expected.
Sony Ericsson, the joint venture between Sony (NYSE: SNE) and Ericsson (NASDAQ: ERIC) warned Friday it might not see any profit growth in the second quarter, due to slowing demand for some of its higher-priced phones and a delay in shipping new models to the market and will also experience a gross margin squeeze. ERIC shares are down about 6% in premarket trading.
Well, I can't predict when the market will turn, or when Toyota's (NYSE: TM) stock will once again be in favor, but I can tell you that I won't be buying its shares here. According to this article, Toyota may not do as well as it planned in terms of sales in 2008 in the U.S. market. The company told investors that year-over-year growth in the number of cars sold is now in question. In 2007, Toyota moved 2.62 million automobiles in the U.S., and for 2008, Toyota wanted to sell 2.64 million cars.
I probably don't need to say it, but I will: considering the negative trends in oil futures, gas prices, consumer confidence, inflation, recession potential, and the housing industry, the fact that the stocks of Toyota, General Motors (NYSE: GM), and Ford (NYSE: F) are having a really tough time right now is not surprising. Toyota's stock closed down 2% on the news of the sales struggle at the end of Tuesday's trading session. That's not a particularly horrible downward move, and the stock is still a few bucks above its 52-week low, but I think there's a chance the stock will take out that low at some point.
Investing in the auto industry might be a dicey move here. Sure, you could pick up some bounces, but being early in this space could prove depressing for even the heartiest investor. Auto sales might get worse before they get better (they're pretty bad now as it is), so I'll stay away from Toyota and this sector.
Disclosure: I don't own any company mentioned here; positions can change at any time.
The bad news just keeps coming for General Motors (NYSE: GM). The beleaguered auto giant has announced that it will offer 0% financing to help get rid of its growing inventory of inefficient trucks and SUVs, even as it is forced to raise prices due to higher raw material costs. Its once proud Hummer brand is now an albatross that the company is considering unloading. And its market cap of $7.5 billion is lower than not only Toyota (NYSE: TM) but also ailing Ford (NYSE: F) -- GM has lost so much value that a writer at CNNMoney is making the argument that it should be removed from the Dow Jones Industrial Average.
One bright spot for GM has been the Chevy Volt, a hybrid car that has generated considerable excitement in the automotive press. The design of the car is groundbreaking, with a large battery that is recharged by a small gas engine. This is an advance over the popular Toyota Prius and other hybrids, which are essentially gasoline-powered vehicles that use batteries to improve mileage and emissions. With the Volt, scheduled for production for the 2010 model year, GM could claim a real technological advance for the first time in years, and maybe regain some market share.
But there's only one problem: it is highly unlikely that GM will be able to deliver the Volt as promised, according to an Atlanticpiece about the car. The article is filled with fascinating details about the ongoing development of the car, especially the frantic pace and rapid innovation required to get the car into production shape. But an unnamed executive told the magazine that this is exactly the problem. The development process has been too compressed, which will force GM to either fail to meet its target date or, worse, to deliver an inferior product. As the executive put it, "They're making a huge mistake."
NYSE Euronext (NYSE: NYX) will pay $250 million in Qatar's Doha stock exchange, the Doha Securities Market (DSM), in return for a 25% stake. It makes sense for NYX to expand into the Middle East as that region is becoming more financially influential.
Nokia (NYSE: NOK) is paying $410 million to buy out the rest of Symbian, a maker of operating systems for mobile phones. This move, announced just as Google (NASDAQ: GOOG) said its Android system will be delayed, could help Nokia as it becomes more entrenched in the marketplace. While Microsoft's (NASDAQ: MSFT) Windows Mobile operating system is Symbian's closest rivals, its still new kid Apple Inc. (NASDAQ: AAPL)'s iPhone that captures the interest of many.
United Airlines (NASDAQ: UAUA) said Monday it will cut about 950 pilot jobs out of its 6,600 pilots beginning this summer. The airline has already announced cutting 1,600 salaried positions and reduce its fleet. UAUA shares, already sliding nearly 15% Monday, continue to decline in premarket trading as airlines will likely stay in focus.
Presumptive Republican presidential candidate John McCain's plan to award a $300 million prize "for the development of a battery package that has the size, capacity, cost and power to leapfrog the commercially available plug-in hybrids or electric cars " raises many questions.
For one thing, what does he mean by "leapfrog?" Does the McCain car have to be 10?% better? 20% better? or 30% better? Will a marginal improvement suffice? Moreover, who is going to decide whether the goal is met? environmentalists? the automakers? the government? These people can not agree on what we should do to reduce air pollution; I can't imagine the fights that will occur over what constitutes a technological "leap."
McCain wants the car to deliver a power source at 30% of the "current costs." Does that mean costs as of 2008 or whenever this wonder car is ready to be sold to consumers? How does he define "costs?" Is it the total cost of ownership or a reduction in the sticker price or something else entirely? Why limit it to batteries? What about hydrogen fuel cells whose only pollution is water vapor?
In a speech he delivered today, McCain pointed out that "right now we have a hodgepodge of incentives for the purchase of fuel-efficient cars." Indeed, purchasing a hybrid only makes economic sense for the most die-hard of tree huggers. But is the answer to skyrocketing gasoline price to be found in a contest? I am not so sure.
When Toyota Motor Corp. (NYSE: TM) announced that is had sold its one-millionth Prius hybrid car, environmentalists worldwide stood up and cheered. After all, it was Japanese foresight that saw the need for 45-MPG cars more than just a few years ago and all it took for the sales to take off was the onslaught of $4/gallon gas. But as this National Labor Committee analysis explains, is Toyota the touchy-feely auto manufacturer that it seems to be? In a word, no.
The push to get products to the market as fast as possible (hopefully, the "right" products) has turned Toyota into a labor-abusing monolith of corporate greed, according to the article. While General Motors Corp. (NYSE: GM) pays its workers very well from a labor standpoint and gives the labor force a large voice, Toyota's workers are overworked, underpaid and abused in other ways. Is there a good, middle ground? The appetite of U.S. consumers to purchase more fuel-efficient cars -- something Detroit is still unprepared for in many ways -- is giving Toyota unprecedented levels of new business. All this business is creating demand, and in turn, Toyota must form a method to get those products out the door. According to the NLC, turning the screws on human labor rights is the key to all this.
Is it really the "race to the bottom?" As in, the bottom of the price barrel where "worst practices" are adopted as a form of competitive pressure to ensure those sales continue to rack up? The distinction between labor practices for Toyota's Japanese workers and GM's American workers is pretty stark in this example. It seems to strongly suggest that all those Prius owners who believe they are helping the world by bellowing out less emissions and wasting less gas are paying for it in another way -- in the form of human rights abuses they never see.
With the U.S. economy in slow-growth / no-growth mode, domestic demand for autos has been low, as predicted. However, almost on cue, demand for smaller vehicles has been robust.
That cue is $4 gasoline, The New York Times reported Friday. Or, as one Harrison, N.Y. resident called her monthly gasoline bill, "My car payment in addition to my car payment."
A 60-70% increase in gasoline prices in the last two years has led to a large increase in demand for small cars and hybrids, The Times reported, with limited supply of some of the most-preferred models creating further frustration for automakers and purchasers alike. The more things change...
Economist Glen Langan said a great deal has changed during the time between the last oil shock in 1979-80 and today's oil shock: long hair for men is out, as are bell-bottom pants, and album-oriented rock (mainly because there are no more record albums). One thing hasn't changed: U.S. automakers, once again, "were dramatically under-prepared for the high gas price era."
GM (NYSE: GM) has decided that it will come close to suspending development of new SUVs. The market for the trucks is so bad that even Toyota (NYSE: TM) thinks it will lose money on the beasts in the US this year.
The Wall Street Journal reports "General Motors Corp. is delaying the redesign of SUVs and full-size trucks as part of a wholesale review of its product." For those not watching the car business over the last year, GM's decision comes way too late.The company should have cut back SUV development some time ago and made an attempt to get more of the mid-sized sedan market controlled by the Japanese.
It is easy to say that GM could not have seen the future, but that would be slighting companies like Nissan and Honda (NYSE: HMC) which was early in marketing more fuel-efficient cars.
GM is paying dearly for its mistake. Its shares hit a multi-year low at $14.75 in trading yesterday. They have not been so low since the Arab Oil Embargo in 1974.
How ironic.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
Markets in Asia were troubled by rising oil and concerns that the global economy is getting into more trouble as each week passes.
The Shanghai Composite fell 6.5% to 2,749.
In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng fell 2.2% to 22,807. China Life (NYSE: LFC) dropped 3.1% to 28.3 yuan. China Petroluem (NYSE: SNP) fell 3% to 8.07.
In Tokyo, the Nikkei dropped 2.2% to 14,130. Mazda fell 5.5% to 568 yen. Toyota (NYSE: TM) dropped 3.2% to 5490 on concerns that its truck sales were falling in the US.
Ford Motor Co. (NYSE: F) has decided to take even more costs out if its operations. Where it will find the people and extra expenses is almost impossible to imagine. According to The Wall Street Journal (subscription required), "with more than half of Ford's plant saddled with excess capacity, Ford officials believe the push to control overtime is paramount."
The car company is also sending signals that it will have to take out more people.
Ford has almost certainly reached the fork in the road. At some point, the company will not have the capacity to rebuild its business when the domestic market begins to come back. The real competitors in the market, Toyota (NYSE: TM)and Honda (NYSE: HMC) will keep investing in new development and marketing, and will keep their abilities to manufacture new products at reasonable levels.
Ford may be able to save its present by sacrificing its future. And, if things go badly, it will not matter how much the company cuts. The U.S. car market is that bad.
Douglas A. McIntyre is an editor at 247wallst.com.
The Department of Energy announced it was throwing some money at the electric car dream yesterday. They'll spend "up to $30 million in funding over three years" on three projects they hope will produce a viable electric car by 2014. Wow, that's a whole $10 million a year!
The DOE is funding three projects they hope will produce an electric car that can go 40 miles on a charge, enough for 70% of daily commuters. They made the announcement at a conference on Plug-in Electric Vehicles 2008: What Role for Washington? Apparently the Energy Department decided the role was to make a token amount of funding and let other countries take the lead. The plan is to split the cost 50-50 with industry. General Motors (NYSE:GM) is going to work on a Lithium-Ion battery. Ford (NYSE:F) will work on a way to speed up mass production of electric cars. And General Electric (NYSE:GE) will try to figure out a two-battery, 40-mile system.
I'm sure everyone's working on all sorts of other projects, but this one just seems tiny, especially in context of the current oil crisis and the $40.1 billion requested Department of Transportation budget for FY2009. As cNet's Elsa Wenzel helpfully points out, Toyota (NYSE:TM), working with Matsushita Electric Industrial (NYSE:MC), thinks it can mass market an electric car by 2010.
I was actually in Detroit on Monday. I'm not going to write about the urban decay and the deterioration of the city. Many have researched and documented this far better than I ever could. But even in my short three-hour visit, the evidence was all too clear. Personally, I think Detroit has more character than many other richer and far more maintained and manicured cities. Even abandoned and in shambles, many of the buildings are architectural gems. Perhaps because one can still see the glorious past through the ruins, that it is so affecting. Or, as the website names them, they are The Fabulous Ruins of Detroit.
It probably should come as no surprise, but June was a 
This post is part of 
Well, I can't predict when the market will turn, or when 
The bad news just keeps coming for 
Presumptive Republican presidential candidate John McCain's 
When 
The Department of Energy 
Wal-Mart's launch of $20 slimming jeans will be a huge success
Why I spent some of my stimulus check on GE
Why the dollar will keep falling
